MODELOS GEOESTATÍSTICOS NA AVALIAÇÃO E ESTIMATIVA TEMPORAL DA EVAPOTRANSPIRAÇÃO DE REFERÊNCIA

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.31413/nat.v12i4.17568


Keywords:

Estatística descritiva, métodos geoestatísticos, modelagem de variogramas

Abstract

The Reference Evapotranspiration (ET0) is an important hydrometeorological variable in various applications: in integrated planning of water resources management and land use for agricultural and forestry projects. ET0 information is not readily available in much of the Brazilian territory, requiring the use of alternative methods and techniques for its quantification. This study aimed to estimate ET0 using FAO Penman-Monteith, which in turn allowed us to visualize its spatial behavior, conduct a statistical analysis, and evaluate the temporal variation process of ET0 through geostatistical methods of kriging and variograms in three locations in the State of Pará. The modeling showed that ET0 has strong temporal dependence. The highest frequencies were for values between 3.5 mm and 4.00 mm. Similar demand for ET0 was observed among the locations, as well as its seasonality, due to the behavior of the input variables that influence its estimation. The kriging method highlighted periods of higher and/or lower ET0 values. The adjusted variograms had R2 > 0.86 and the sum of squares of residuals (SQR) close to zero.

References

ALLEN, R.; PEREIRA, L.; RAES, D.; SMITH, M. Crop evapotranspiration: guidelines for computing crop requirements. Roma: FAO, 1998. 328p. (Irrigation and Drainage Paper, 56).

´

ALLEN, R. G.; PEREIRA, L. S.; RAES, D.; SMITH, M. Evapotranspiración del cultivo. Roma: FAO, 2006. p. 1-79.

ALVES, H. J. P.; DOS SANTOS, L. M.; BATISTA, B. D. O. Geoestatística espaço-temporal aplicada ao albedo de superfície: O caso do sul de Minas Gerais. Revista Brasileira de Meio Ambiente, v. 9, n. 3, p. 48-62, 2021. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5703280

ALVARES, C. A.; STAPE, J. L.; SENTELHAS, P. C.; GONÇALVES, J. L. de M.; SPAROVEK, G. . Koppen’s climate classification map for Brazil. Meteorologische Zeitschrift, v. 22, p. 711-728, 2014. https://doi.org/10.1127/0941-2948/2013/0507.

BHATTACHARJEE, S.; GHOSH, S. K.; CHEN, J. Semantic Kriging for Spatio-temporal Prediction. Singapore: Springer, 2019. 127p.

BORGES, M. I. S.; DÍAZ, N. M. M. Evaluación comparativa y predicción espacial de la evapotranspiración de referencia mediante métodos geoestadísticos. Bioagro, v. 32, p. 107-116, 2020.

CHILDS, C. Interpolating surfaces in ArcGIS Spatial Analyst. ArcUser, Redlands. In: Conference proceeding. [Fredericksburg]: ESRI Education Services, 2004. p. 32-35.

CHILÈS, J.-P.; DELFINER, P. Geostatistics: modeling spatial uncertainty. 2nd Ed). John Wiley e Sons, 2012. 689p. https://doi.org/10.1002/9781118136188.fmatter.

FARIAS, V. D. da S.; COSTA, D. L. P.; PINTO, J. V. de N.; DE SOUZA, P. J. O. P.; DE SOUZA, E. B.; ORTEGA-FARIAS, S. Calibration of reference evapotranspiration models in Pará. Acta Scientiarium, v. 42, n. 1, p. 2-10, 2020. https://doi.org/10.4025/actasciagron.v42i1.42475

FARIAS, N. L. Variabilidade espacial de atributos físico-hidrícos dos solos da Região Norte Fluminense. 65f. Dissertação [Mestrado em Agronomia – Ciências do Solo] – Universidade Federal Rural do Rio de Janeiro, Seropédica, 2008.

GREGO, C. R.; VIEIRA, S. R. Variabilidade espacial de propriedades físicas de solo em uma parcela experimental. Revista Brasileira de Ciência do Solo, v. 29, n. 2, p. 169-177, 2005. https://doi.org/10.1590/S0100-06832005000200002

GUIMARÃES, E. C. Geoestatística básica e aplicada. Uberlândia, UFU, 2004. 78p. v. 1.

HOYOS, L. S.; RUIZ, B. J. Mapping of solar insolation using air temperature in tropical and mountainous environments. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, v. 135, e12, 2023. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-022-00945-y

JAMALY, M.; KLEISSL, J. Spatiotemporal interpolation and forecast of irradiance data using Kriging. Solar Energy, v. 158, p. 407-423, 2017. https:// doi.org/10.1016/j.solener.2017.09.057

JIN, Z.; LIANG, W.; YANG, Y.; ZHANG; YAN, J.; CHEN, X.; LI, S.; MO, X. Separating vegetation greening and climate change controls on evapotranspiration trend over the Loess Plateau. Scientific Reports, v. 7, n. 1, p. 1-15, 2017. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-08477-x

JUNG, M.; REICHSTEIN, M.; CIAIS, P.; SENEVIRATNE, S.I.; SHEFFIELD, J.; GOULDEN, M. L.; BONAN, G.; CESCATTI, A.; CHEN, J.; DE JEU, R. Recent decline in the global land evapotranspiration trend due to limited moisture supply. Nature, v. 467, n. 7318, p. 951-954, 2010. doi:10.1038/nature09396

KAMALI, M. I.; NAZARI, R.; FARIDHOSSEINI, A.; ANSARI, H.; ESLAMIAN, S. The determination of reference evapotranspiration for spatial distribution mapping using geostatistics. Water Resour Manage, v. 29, p. 3929-3940, 2015. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-015-1037-4

KÖPPEN, W., GEIGER, R. Klimate der Erde. Gotha: Verlag Justus Perthes. Wall-map 150 cm x 200 cm, 1928.

LANDIM, P. M. B.; STURARO, J. R.; MONTEIRO, R. C. Krigagem ordinária para situações com tendência regionalizada. Rio Claco: DGA, IGCE, UNESP, 2002. 12p. (Geomatemática - Texto Didático, 06)

LI, J.; HEAP, A. D. A Review of spatial interpolation methods for environmental scientists. Geoscience Australia, 2008. 137p. Disponivel em: https://d28rz98at9flks.cloudfront.net/68229/Rec2008_023.pdf

LI, J.; HEAP, A. D. A review of comparative studies of Spatial interpolation methods in environmental sciences: performance and impact factors. Ecological Informatics, v 6, p. 228-241, 2011. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoinf.2010.12.003

LI, J.; HEAP, A. D. Spatial interpolation methods applied in the environmental sciences: a review. Environmental Modelling & Software, v. 53, p. 173-189, 2014. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2013.12.008

LITTLE, T. M.; HILLS, F. J. Agricultural experimentation. New York: John Wiley& Sons, 1978. 350p.

LYRA, G. B.; SANTOS, C. M.; ABREU, M. C. ET AL.·Estimates of monthly global solar irradiation using empirical models and artificial intelligence techniques based on air temperature in Southeastern Brazil. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, v. 152, p. 1031-1051, 2023. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-023-04442

MATHERON, G. Principles of geostatistics. Economic Geology, v. 58, p. 1246-1266, 1963. https://doi.org/10.2113/gsecongeo.58.8.1246

MINACAPILLI, M.; CAMMALLERI, C.; CIRAOLO, G.; RALLO, G.; PROVENZANO, G. Using scintillometry to assess reference evapotranspiration methods and their impact on the water balance of olive groves. Agricultural Water Management, v. 170, p. 49-60, 2016. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2015.12.004

MORENO, A.; GILABERT, M. A.; MARTÍNEZ, B. Mapping daily global solar irradiation over Spain: a comparative study of selected approaches. Solar Energy, v. 85, p. 2072-2084, 2011. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.solener.2011.05.017

OLIVER, M. A.; WEBSTER, R. Basic Steps in Geostatistics: The Variogram and Kriging. Springer Cham, 2015. 100p.

OLIVER, M. A.; WEBSTER, R. Kriging: a method of interpolation for geographical information systems. International Journal of Geographical Information Systems, v. 4, p. 313-332, 1990. https://doi.org/10.1080/02693799008941549

RIVINGTON, M.; MATTHEWS, K. B.; BELLOCCHI, G.; BUCHAN, K. Evaluating uncertainty introduced to process-based simulation model estimates by alternative sources of meteorological data. Agricultural Systems, v. 88, p. 451-471, 2006. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2005.07.004

SANTOS, C. M.; ROSSI, T. J.; DAL PAI, A.; ESCOBEDO, J. F.; DE SOUZA, A.; DA SILVA, M. P.; KAMBEZIDIS, H. D. Analysis of the total, annual, and inter-annual hourly mean direct solar normal irradiation. Arabian Journal of Geosciences, v. 15, e219, 2022. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-022-09505-5

SANTOS, C. A. C.; MARIANO, D. A.; NASCIMENTO, F. C. A.; DANTAS, F. R. C.; OLIVEIRA, G.; SILVA, M. T.; SILVA, L. L.; SILVA, B. B.; BEZERRA, B. G.; SAFA, B.; MEDEIROS, S. S.; NEALE, C. M. U. Spatio-temporal patterns of energy exchange and evapotranspiration during an intense drought for drylands in Brazil. International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation, v. 85, e101982, 2020. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jag.2019.101982

SCOLUM, T. A.; MCMASTER, R. B.; KESSLER, F. C.; HOWARD, H. H. Thematic cartography and geography visualization. Upper Saddle River: Prentice Hall, 518p. 2005.

SENTELHAS, P. C.; GILLESPIE, T. J.; SANTOS, E. A. Evaluation of FAO Penman-Monteith and alternative for estimating reference evapotranspiration with missing data in southern Ontario, Canada. Agricultural Water Management, v. 97, p. 635-644, 2010. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2009.12.001

SILVA, A. F.; QUARTEZA, W. Z.; ZIMBACK, C. R. L.; LANDIM, P. M. B. Aplicação da geoestatística em a ciências agrárias. Botucatu: FEPAF, 2011. 136p.

SILVA, F. D. S.; COSTA, R. L.; ANTONIO, M. A. V.; AFONSO, E. O.; SANTOS, D. M.; MATEUS, N. P. A.; ANTONIO, J. F. Tendências observadas da evapotranspiração potencial no Estado de Alagoas (1961-2016). Revista Brasileira de Geografia Física, v. 11, n. 1, p. 28-43, 2018. https://doi.org/10.26848/rbgf.v11.1.p028-043

SILVA, M. B. P. da; SOUZA, V. C. de .; CREMASCO, C. P. .; CALÇA, M. V. C.; SANTOS, C. M. dos; CREMASCO, C. P.; GABRIEL FILHO , L. R. A.; RODRIGUES, S. A.; ESCOBEDO, J. F. Estimativa da evapotranspiração de referência do Planalto Paulista por meio de regressões múltiplas com dados ausentes estimados via análise de componentes principais. Research, Society and Development, v. 11, n. 8, e31120, 2022a. https://doi.org/10.33448/rsd-v11i8.31120

SILVA, M. B. P. da; SOUZA, V. C. de; PIRES CREMASCO, C.; CALÇA, M. V. C.; SANTOS, C. M. dos; CREMASCO, C. P.; GABRIEL FILHO, L. R. A.; RODRIGUES, S. A.; ESCOBEDO, J. F. Modelos de Machine Learning Aplicados na estimação da evapotranspiração de referência do planalto ocidental paulista. Nativa, v. 10, n. 4, p. 506-515, 2022b. https://doi.org/10.31413/nativa.v10i4.13922

TRANGMAR, B. B.; YOST, R. S.; UEHARA, G. Application of geostatistics to spatial studies of soil properties. Advances in Agronomy, v. 38, n.1, p. 45-93, 1985. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0065-2113(08)60673-2

VILANOVA, M. R. N.; SIMÕES, S. J. C.; TRANNIN, I. C, B. Interpolação geoespacial da evapotranspiração de referência (ETo) em regiões com escassez de dados: estudo de caso no Sul de Minas Gerais. Revista Ambient & Água, v. 7, n. 2, p. 179-194, 2012. https://doi.org/10.4136/ambi-agua.763

WEBSTER, R.; OLIVER, M. A. Geostatistics for environmental scientists. Chichester: Wiley, 2001. 271p. https://doi.org/10.1002/9780470517277

WMO_World Meteorological Organization. Guide to meteorological instruments and methods of observation. 7 Ed. Geneva, Switzerland, 2008. 681p. https://www.weather.gov/media/epz/mesonet/CWOP-WMO8.pdf.

ZIMBACK, C. R. L. Análise espacial de atributos químicos de solos para fins de mapeamento da fertilidade. 114p. Tese [Livre-Docência] – Faculdade de Ciências Agronomicas, Universidade Estadual Paulista, Botucatu, 2001.

Published

2024-12-03

Issue

Section

Engenharia Agrícola / Agricultural Engineering

How to Cite

MODELOS GEOESTATÍSTICOS NA AVALIAÇÃO E ESTIMATIVA TEMPORAL DA EVAPOTRANSPIRAÇÃO DE REFERÊNCIA. (2024). Nativa, 12(4), 732-743. https://doi.org/10.31413/nat.v12i4.17568

Most read articles by the same author(s)