IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE DISTRIBUTION OF JATOBA SPECIES
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.31413/nat.v14i1.20112Keywords:
recursos florestais, modelagem ecológica, domínios fitogeográficos brasileirosAbstract
Climate change, driven by the increase in greenhouse gases, alters global thermal and rainfall regimes, threatening megadiverse ecosystems such as the Amazon. Hymenaea species (H. aurea, H. courbaril, H. erigyone, H. martiana, H. parvifolia, H. stigonocarpa) have high food, timber, and medicinal value and are therefore a priority for community conservation programs. This study aimed to develop projections from modeling the current (2009-2019) and future distribution of Hymenaea species using 19 bioclimatic and 14 edaphic variables in Brazilian phytogeographic domains. Information was generated for two climate scenarios, SSP (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways), SSP245 (less pessimistic), and SSP585 (more pessimistic), in the time intervals (2041-2060, 2061-2080, and 2081-2100). The models indicate high adequacy in the Amazon, Cerrado, and Caatinga; however, future scenarios predict contractions of significant areas, especially in SSP585, with progressive losses of suitable habitat. SSP245 suggests smaller reductions and more stable variations. Against this trend, it is proposed that conservation units and ecological corridors in these areas be prioritized, combined with sustainable management plans that integrate traditional knowledge and applied research. The integration of climatic, edaphic, and socioecological data from this research provides a robust scientific basis for the design of the preservation of genetic resources of Hymenaea in the coming decades, mitigating extinction risks.
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